The election of Republican front runner Donald Trump as the new United States president is counted among the top 10 global risks, the Economist Intelligence Unit said.
His election could disturb the global economy and enhance political and security risks in the country, the research firm said. Nevertheless, the firm says that he is not expected to beat Hillary Clinton in the presidential race.
The business mogul winning the election will be riskier than Britain’s departure from the European Union or an armed clash in the South China Sea.
EIU says another consequence could be a trade war, the prospect of which are “quite high,” Robert Powell, global risk briefing manager at EIU, said. “Why is a guy who has many of his goods made in China wanting to start a trade war in China?” He added that Trump’s policy positions will be difficult to assess as he tends “to shift his opinions like the weather.”
Trump has called for building a wall along the U.S. Mexican border to prevent illegal immigrants and drug dealers from entering the U.S., BBC reports. Regarding Trump’s remarks against Muslims, the EIU said, “His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East and ban on all Muslim travel to the US would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”
Before Trump, the research firm had never included the pending election of a candidate in the list of the top global threats to the U.S. and the world. “It’s highly unusual, and I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items,” Powell said. The firm had, however, once included the transition at the top of the Chinese Communist Party a risk, Politico reports.
“Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress,” wrote EIU. “Such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”
EIU uses a scale of 1 to 25 to assess global risks; Trump’s rating stands at 12. You can view the overall list here.