With polls showing the gap between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton getting narrower, there’s no telling who will emerge victorious come November 8. Despite this fact, a professor has predicted that Trump will win the elections and here’s the catch, his predictions have been on point since 1984!
His name Allan Lichtman and he is a professor of history at American University. Unlike other political experts who base their predictions on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions.
In an interview with the Washington Post, he revealed his method in predicting the next president using the “Keys to the White House” a system of true/false statements he uses to determine the winner of the election.
He outlined these statements in his book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016.” Using this system, he has successfully predicted the results of elections for more than two decades.
Now this system has led him to predict that Donald Trump will win the presidency this November. Is Prof. Lichtman wrong? Check out his “Keys to the White House” and decide for yourself:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Sure enough although President Obama does have charisma, social unrest, the military and the economy drag him and his party down. With Hillary Clinton promising to continue her predecessor’s policies, it’s now wonder the professor predicted a Trump victory.
Do you agree with Professor Allan Lichtman’s prediction that Trump will win the presidency? Let us know in the comments below.